Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Author: Richards J. Heuer
Publisher: Center for the Study of Intelligence
Keywords: analysis, intelligence, psychology
Number of Pages: 184
Published: 1999-01-01
ISBN-10: 1929667000
ISBN-13: 9781929667000

Book Description:

 

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

by Richards J. Heuer, Jr.

Author’s Preface ....................................................vi

Foreword...............................................................ix

Introduction.......................................................xiii

PART I—OUR MENTAL MACHINERY...............1

Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking ...........................1

Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can’t We See

What Is There To Be Seen?............................................7

Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We Remember

What We Know?.........................................................17

PART II—TOOLS FOR THINKING..................31

Chapter 4: Strategies for Analytical Judgment:

Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information...31

Chapter 5: Do You Really Need More Information?...51

Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind............................65

Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical Problems................85

Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses...........95

PART III—COGNITIVE BIASES......................111

Chapter 9: What Are Cognitive Biases?.....................111

Chapter 10: Biases in Evaluation of Evidence............115vi

Chapter 11: Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect127

Chapter 12: Biases in Estimating Probabilities..........147

Chapter 13: Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of

Intelligence Reporting...............................................161

PART IV—CONCLUSIONS .............................173

Chapter 14: Improving Intelligence Analysis.............173

 

This book was prepared primarily for the use of US Government officials, and the format, coverage, and content were designed to meet their specific requirements. Because this book is now out of print, this Portable Document File (PDF) is formatted for two-sided printing to facilitate desktop publishing. It may be used by US Government agencies to make copies for government purposes and by non-governmental organizations to make copies for educational purposes. Because this book may be subject to copyright restriction, copies may not be made for any commercial purpose.


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