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Author: Andrea Hornstein
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Keywords: mechanism, reprint, economic, quarterly, inspecting, model, vacancy, fluctuations, matching, unemployment
Number of Pages: 33
Published: 2008-10-01
ISBN-10: 1437904963
ISBN-13: 9781437904963

The behavior of unemploy. over the bus. cycle plays an important role in economic policy considerations. Most of the variation in unemploy. comes about through changes in job-finding rates. Search theories of unemploy. study the implications of the matching process between unemployed workers and vacant jobs in environments with search frictions. The authors review work on whether these theories are consistent with the cyclical behavior of unemploy. and job-finding rates. They conclude that when the basic search model is calibrated to generate labor market volatility of a magnitude comparable w

Author: Chad R. Wilkerson
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Keywords: economy, reprint, economic, review, district, tenth, national, defense, spending, affecting, rise
Number of Pages: 31
Published: 2009-02
ISBN-10: 1437908659
ISBN-13: 9781437908657

In 2007, the U.S. spent over $650 billion on national defense; this was the largest annual amount since 1945. Defense spending accounts for nearly 5% of overall gross domestic product. National defense represents an even larger share of economic activity in the 10th Fed. Reserve District. The region is home to some of the countryżs largest military installations, and a number of private contractors. Is the buildup in national defense stimulating the economies of the states in the 10th District? Increased defense spending is likely to help the region more in the long run than the short run. Th

Author: Marcelle Chauvet
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Keywords: reprint, economic, review, countries, oecd, business, cycles, international
Number of Pages: 12
Published: 2009-05
ISBN-10: 1437900453
ISBN-13: 9781437900453

The globalization of markets has sparked a worldwide interest in using economic indicators to analyze cyclical fluctuations. Governments and the private sector could benefit from internat. indicators that serve as a warning system to detect recessions in major economic partners and in industrialized countries as whole. This article constructs just such a warning system. The authors construct business cycle indicators for G7 countries and for an aggregate measure of output by 29 member countries of the OECD. The model yields probabilities of the current bus. cycle phase for each G7 country and

Author: Ceyhun Bora Durdu
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Keywords: open, economies, small, risk, sovereign, default, news
Number of Pages: 24
Published: 2010-11
ISBN-10: 1437939147
ISBN-13: 9781437939149

This paper builds a model of sovereign debt in which default risk, interest rates, and debt depend not only on current fundamentals but also on news about future fundamentals. News shocks (NS) affect equilibrium outcomes because they contain info. about the future ability of the govżt. to repay its debt. First, in the model with NS not all defaults occur in bad times. Second, the NS help account for key differences between emerging markets and developed economies: as the precision of the news improves the model predicts lower variability of consumption, less counter-cyclical trade balance and

Author: Robert L. Hetzel
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Keywords: economic, quarterly, reprint, recession, policy, monetary
Number of Pages: 32
Published: 2010-01
ISBN-10: 1437919502
ISBN-13: 9781437919509

The recession that began with a cyclical peak in Dec. 2007 originated in a combination of real shocks because of a fall in housing wealth and a fall in real income from an increase in energy prices. The most common explanation for the intensification of the recession that began in the late summer of 2008 is the propagation of these shocks through dysfunction in credit markets. The alternative explanation offered emphasizes propagation through contractionary monetary policy. The 1st explanation stresses the importance of credit-market interventions (credit policy). The 2nd emphasizes the import

Author: Osvaldo Adasme
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Keywords: lessons, chile, foes, friends, risk, access
Number of Pages: 33
Published: 2006
eBookDB-ID: GGKEY:98Y1

This paper documents the link between risk, stability, and access to credit markets in an emerging economy. It presents annual credit loss distributions of Chilean banks for the period 1999-2005, providing the first empirical evidence of the cyclical pattern of expected losses and unexpected losses of bank loan portfolios in emerging countries. The paper provides three main contributions to the debate on bank solvency and access to credit markets. First, it derives nonparametric estimators of expected losses and unexpected losses, free from model error and, in particular, from distributional r

Author: John Edwards
Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations
Keywords: independent, task, force, report, states, wrong, direction, united, russia
Number of Pages: 104
Published: 2006-04-30
ISBN-10: 0876093527
ISBN-13: 9780876093528

More than a decade and a half after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Russian- American relations continue a cyclical pattern in which high hopes for cooperation alternate with disappointment. After September 11, the formula for the relationshipbuilding on several strong common interests while marginalizing issues on which agreement was not possibleseemed a clear success. Positive results led many in both countries to declare that Russian-American relations had never been more productive or enjoyed stronger domestic support in each country. Yet with Presidents Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush now
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